On Monday, the main contract for Shanghai copper, 1808, fell under pressure and closed at 54160 yuan/ton at the end of the day, with intraday trading at 54040-54480 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. At present, copper prices are above the moving average group. In terms of term structure, Shanghai copper futures maintain a positive alignment of near low and far high, with the positive price difference between Shanghai copper 1807 and 1808 contracts narrowing to 210 yuan/ton, indicating a strong willingness for forward contracts to rise.

In terms of external trading, Asia London Copper is under pressure and declining. As of 3:00 pm Beijing time, London Copper has been trading at $7275/ton for the past three months, a daily decline of 0.42%, and is still operating above the moving average group. In terms of holdings, as of June 8th, the position of London Copper was 342000, with an average daily increase of 8645 lots. In the past week, the position of London Copper has increased and decreased, indicating cautious long and short trading.

On a macro level, the Asian dollar index fluctuated lower and is now trading around 93.44, with a slight daily decline of 0.12%. During the G7 summit, trade frictions arose between the United States and various countries, and market risk aversion intensified and suppressed. The market's focus is on the Federal Reserve's June interest rate hike this week. In terms of industry, the Chilean Copper Commission reported that Chile's copper production in April jumped 6.4% year-on-year to 446900 tons, due to an increase in output from large private mines in the country.

In terms of the market, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot offers a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the current month's contract, with a transaction price of 53740 yuan/ton to 53800 yuan/ton for flat copper and 53760 yuan/ton to 53840 yuan/ton for premium copper. Shanghai copper futures remain volatile at a high level, with a basis of over 200 yuan/ton. Holders still have the willingness to raise prices, with a price discount of 50 yuan/ton~flat level. The market stops and watches at high prices. Although the inquiry atmosphere is still acceptable, the trade activity is low. As the delivery period approaches, the monthly basis spread does not close but expands, which to some extent limits the space for expansion under the discount. Downstream demand buying, and traders' receipt of goods is influenced by their respective financial capabilities. Market transactions showed a stalemate on Monday.

In terms of inventory, as of June 8th, COMEX copper inventory was 231012 short tons, an increase of 355 tons from the previous day; LME copper inventory is 307075 tons, a decrease of 3125 tons from the previous day; As of June 11th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's futures inventory was 133562 tons, a decrease of 55 tons from the previous day.

In terms of news, Ronald Salcedo, the union chairman of Spence Copper Mine, a subsidiary of BHP Billiton, stated that the union workers have expressed their approval of the new labor contract offer. The union has a total of 802 workers, of whom 87% voted in favor of the new labor agreement. The Spence copper mine is located in the Pampa Norte region of Chile. The cathode copper production of the mine from January to March 2018 was 148900 tons, while the cathode copper production from January to March 2017 was 136100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%.

At present, the expectation of copper mine strikes has been lowered, and the momentum of copper prices continuing to rise has weakened. Of course, we still need to wait for the final negotiation results. Looking back at the impact of domestic environmental protection on scrap copper, it will continue to trigger expectations of supply side contraction. It is expected that copper prices will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. Pay attention to the recent trend of the US dollar. For reference only.

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